entre-left candidate set to defeat far-right in Portugal presidential election runoff

António José Seguro, the centre-left Socialist candidate, is widely expected to defeat far-right populist André Ventura in Portugal’s presidential runoff, in a contest seen as a test of the country’s tolerance for populist politics.

Recent polls indicate Seguro could secure roughly twice as many votes as Ventura in the head-to-head matchup. The two candidates advanced from last month’s first round, where none of the 11 contenders achieved the majority needed to win outright.

Making it to the runoff marks a milestone for Ventura and his Chega party, which has rapidly emerged as a significant force in Portuguese politics amid a broader European shift to the right.

Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. local time under overcast skies and were scheduled to close 12 hours later, with exit polls expected immediately afterward and most official results predicted by 11 p.m. More than 11 million Portuguese citizens are eligible to vote.

Seguro has positioned himself as a moderate, emphasising cooperation with the country’s centre-right minority government and rejecting Ventura’s anti-establishment and anti-immigrant rhetoric. The Socialist candidate has also gained backing from mainstream politicians across the political spectrum who aim to curb the rising populist influence.

While the Portuguese president serves largely in a ceremonial role, the office wields influential powers, including the ability to veto legislation and dissolve parliament, calling early elections if necessary. Following Portugal’s third general election in three years last May, stabilising the political environment remains a key challenge for the next head of state.

Ventura has maintained a combative campaign style, centring on immigration and anti-establishment messaging. He has denounced what he sees as excessive immigration, placing billboards nationwide with slogans such as “This isn’t Bangladesh” and warning against welfare benefits for foreign residents.

Despite founding Chega less than seven years ago, the party’s rapid rise helped it become Portugal’s second-largest in parliament following the May general election. The winner of the presidential runoff will succeed centre-right incumbent Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who has reached the constitutional limit of two five-year terms.